Weekly Options Backtest — Performance Summary & Analysis
| Sell put @ 0.98× price (higher strike) | Collect premium — short leg, theta decay |
| Buy put @ 0.95× price (lower strike) | Pay premium — long leg, defines max loss |
| Net credit received at open | Max profit = credit × 100 × qty |
| Profits when AAPL stays above short put strike | Max loss = (width − credit) × 100 × qty |
| Average winner | +$844 |
| Average loser | $-1,989 |
| Best trade | +$1,680 (2025-04-07) |
| Worst trade | $-6,250 (2025-03-31) |
| Total gross wins | +$26,150 |
| Total gross losses | $-27,840 |
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Max profit per trade | $1,057 avg | Net credit received — defined max gain |
| Max loss per trade | $6,054 avg | Width minus credit — defined max loss |
| Max drawdown | $11,700 | Peak-to-trough cumulative |
| Best single trade | +$1,680 | 2025-04-07 open |
| Worst single trade | $-6,250 | 2025-03-31 open |
Total P&L of $-1,690 over 45 trades. Downside moves in AAPL caused the short put to be tested, resulting in losses that exceeded credits collected.
68.9% win rate is consistent with a net-credit strategy — theta decay and the short Mon–Thu window work in favour of the seller.
Credit spreads typically win frequently but lose large when breached. A payoff ratio below 1.0x is expected — profitability requires the win rate to compensate. Monitor the credit-to-width ratio closely.
AAPL faced macro headwinds (rate uncertainty, AI capex cycle) in 2025. Sharp intraweek pullbacks can push the stock below the 0.98× short put strike, triggering full-width losses despite the overall trend.
All pricing uses real OPRA options bar data from Alpaca (feed=opra). Entry = Monday bar open; Exit = Thursday bar close. No commissions, slippage, pin risk, or early-exercise risk are modelled. Actual results will differ.
| Open Date | Close Date | Expiry | S Open | S Close | Short K / Long K | Width | Net Credit | Close Cost | P&L | Cum P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-06 | 2025-01-10 | 2025-01-10 | $244.31 | $236.76 | 240 / 230 | 10 | $0.8000 | $3.1300 | $-2,330 | $-2,330 |
| 2025-01-13 | 2025-01-16 | 2025-01-17 | $233.52 | $228.24 | 230 / 220 | 10 | $1.4300 | $2.5300 | $-1,100 | $-3,430 |
| 2025-01-27 | 2025-01-30 | 2025-01-31 | $224.02 | $237.53 | 220 / 215 | 5 | $1.6500 | $0.2400 | +$1,410 | $-2,020 |
| 2025-02-03 | 2025-02-06 | 2025-02-07 | $229.98 | $233.18 | 225 / 220 | 5 | $0.8200 | $0.0400 | +$780 | $-1,240 |
| 2025-02-10 | 2025-02-13 | 2025-02-14 | $229.58 | $241.49 | 225 / 220 | 5 | $0.6500 | $0.0200 | +$630 | $-610 |
| 2025-02-24 | 2025-02-27 | 2025-02-28 | $244.93 | $237.49 | 240 / 235 | 5 | $0.7100 | $2.4600 | $-1,750 | $-2,360 |
| 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-06 | 2025-03-07 | $241.80 | $235.35 | 235 / 230 | 5 | $0.6400 | $1.4300 | $-790 | $-3,150 |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-03-13 | 2025-03-14 | $235.58 | $209.69 | 230 / 225 | 5 | $0.9500 | $4.7100 | $-3,760 | $-6,910 |
| 2025-03-17 | 2025-03-20 | 2025-03-21 | $213.31 | $214.13 | 210 / 205 | 5 | $1.1700 | $0.2900 | +$880 | $-6,030 |
| 2025-03-24 | 2025-03-27 | 2025-03-28 | $221.00 | $223.74 | 215 / 210 | 5 | $0.5900 | $0.0100 | +$580 | $-5,450 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-03 | 2025-04-04 | $217.16 | $203.01 | 215 / 205 | 10 | $2.0500 | $8.3000 | $-6,250 | $-11,700 |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-11 | $177.31 | $190.63 | 175 / 170 | 5 | $2.0000 | $0.3200 | +$1,680 | $-10,020 |
| 2025-04-21 | 2025-04-24 | 2025-04-25 | $193.11 | $208.20 | 190 / 185 | 5 | $1.2400 | $0.0200 | +$1,220 | $-8,800 |
| 2025-04-28 | 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-02 | $210.00 | $213.03 | 205 / 200 | 5 | $1.4400 | $0.9000 | +$540 | $-8,260 |
| 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-09 | $203.09 | $197.45 | 200 / 195 | 5 | $1.1300 | $2.5500 | $-1,420 | $-9,680 |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-05-15 | 2025-05-16 | $210.99 | $211.33 | 205 / 200 | 5 | $0.2400 | $0.0900 | +$150 | $-9,530 |
| 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-23 | $207.99 | $201.37 | 205 / 200 | 5 | $1.0200 | $3.1300 | $-2,110 | $-11,640 |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-06 | $200.21 | $200.68 | 195 / 190 | 5 | $0.7500 | $0.1200 | +$630 | $-11,010 |
| 2025-06-09 | 2025-06-12 | 2025-06-13 | $204.41 | $199.09 | 200 / 195 | 5 | $0.9700 | $1.4200 | $-450 | $-11,460 |
| 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-20 | 2025-06-20 | $197.31 | $201.03 | 195 / 185 | 10 | $1.3600 | $0.0000 | +$1,360 | $-10,100 |
| 2025-06-23 | 2025-06-26 | 2025-06-27 | $201.62 | $201.05 | 200 / 190 | 10 | $1.6500 | $0.6000 | +$1,050 | $-9,050 |
| 2025-07-07 | 2025-07-10 | 2025-07-11 | $212.81 | $212.36 | 210 / 200 | 10 | $1.1800 | $0.2700 | +$910 | $-8,140 |
| 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-17 | 2025-07-18 | $209.94 | $210.13 | 205 / 200 | 5 | $0.7200 | $0.0500 | +$670 | $-7,470 |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-25 | $212.12 | $213.76 | 210 / 200 | 10 | $1.4000 | $0.1600 | +$1,240 | $-6,230 |
| 2025-07-28 | 2025-07-31 | 2025-08-01 | $214.04 | $207.85 | 210 / 205 | 5 | $1.2900 | $2.4000 | $-1,110 | $-7,340 |
| 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-08 | $204.50 | $220.17 | 200 / 195 | 5 | $0.8800 | $0.0000 | +$880 | $-6,460 |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-14 | 2025-08-15 | $227.92 | $232.78 | 225 / 215 | 10 | $1.6900 | $0.0600 | +$1,630 | $-4,830 |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-22 | $231.72 | $224.90 | 225 / 220 | 5 | $0.5100 | $1.3100 | $-800 | $-5,630 |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-28 | 2025-08-29 | $226.48 | $232.59 | 220 / 215 | 5 | $0.6500 | $0.0300 | +$620 | $-5,010 |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-11 | 2025-09-12 | $239.36 | $229.99 | 235 / 225 | 10 | $1.0200 | $4.5400 | $-3,520 | $-8,530 |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-19 | $236.74 | $237.87 | 230 / 225 | 5 | $0.4700 | $0.0400 | +$430 | $-8,100 |
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-26 | $248.34 | $256.91 | 245 / 235 | 10 | $1.3100 | $0.0300 | +$1,280 | $-6,820 |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-03 | $254.54 | $257.43 | 250 / 240 | 10 | $1.0000 | $0.0500 | +$950 | $-5,870 |
| 2025-10-06 | 2025-10-09 | 2025-10-10 | $257.99 | $254.03 | 255 / 245 | 10 | $1.3700 | $1.7600 | $-390 | $-6,260 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-17 | $249.31 | $247.45 | 245 / 235 | 10 | $1.2700 | $0.7100 | +$560 | $-5,700 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-24 | $255.96 | $259.59 | 250 / 245 | 5 | $0.6200 | $0.0100 | +$610 | $-5,090 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-10-31 | $264.87 | $271.32 | 260 / 250 | 10 | $2.0300 | $0.7200 | +$1,310 | $-3,780 |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-07 | $270.47 | $269.85 | 265 / 255 | 10 | $1.0500 | $0.3100 | +$740 | $-3,040 |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-14 | $269.13 | $273.05 | 265 / 255 | 10 | $1.1500 | $0.1000 | +$1,050 | $-1,990 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-21 | $268.81 | $266.39 | 265 / 255 | 10 | $1.5500 | $1.2900 | +$260 | $-1,730 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-28 | $271.25 | $278.77 | 265 / 260 | 5 | $0.5700 | $0.0000 | +$570 | $-1,160 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-05 | $278.05 | $280.68 | 270 / 265 | 5 | $0.4100 | $0.0200 | +$390 | $-770 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-12 | $278.11 | $278.08 | 275 / 265 | 10 | $1.1800 | $0.2400 | +$940 | +$170 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-19 | $280.15 | $272.24 | 275 / 265 | 10 | $0.7900 | $2.8500 | $-2,060 | $-1,890 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-26 | 2025-12-26 | $272.86 | $273.39 | 265 / 260 | 5 | $0.2000 | $0.0000 | +$200 | $-1,690 |